Cenic One Gigabit or Bust Initiative: A Broadband Vision for California by Gartner May 2003

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A report by Gartner funded by CENIC for a broadband vision for California. May 2003
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  M A Y 2 0 0 3 ã ã ONE GIGABIT OR BUST ™ INITIATIVE ABROADBANDVISIONFORCALIFORNIA  Entire contents © 2003 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved.Reproduction of this publication in any form without priorwritten permission is forbidden. The information containedherein has been obtained from sources believed to bereliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy,completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartnershall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequaciesin the information contained herein or for interpretationsthereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for theselection of these materials to achieve its intended results.The opinions expressed herein are subject to change with-out notice.Gartner and CENIC thank the CENIC Next GenerationInternet Steering Committee members as well as theproject interviewees for taking the time to express theiropinions and concerns.CENIC also acknowledges the ongoing support it receivesfrom the California Technology, Trade and CommerceAgency.Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendationsexpressed in this publication are those of the author(s) anddo not necessarily reflect the views of the State of California. Report Objectives This report has been commissioned by the Corpora-tion for Education Network Initiatives in California(CENIC). CENIC is a not-for-profit corporationthat serves the networking needs of all of California’seducational entities, from K–12 to the researchuniversities.The State of California has awarded a grant toCENIC to focus on speeding one-gigabit broadbandto all Californians by 2010, or, in California short-hand, One Gigabit or Bust ™ . CENIC engagedGartner to evaluate the economic potential of anacceleration of next generation broadband deploy-ment in California. In addition, Gartner was asked tointerview many of the top broadband thinkers, policymakers and consumer advocates within Californiaand throughout the United States with a view towardunderstanding the opportunities and challenges anext generation broadband initiative in Californiamight face.The specific objectives of this report are to:ãEstimate the economic benefit to the stateãScope the project in terms of what needsto be doneãOutline the important items to be consideredin strategy formalizationãIdentify the next steps to be undertaken For More Information Tom West, CENIC562-346-2280 ã twest@cenic.org ã www.cenic.orgMark E. Gilbert, Gartner Consulting818-710-5928 ã Fx: 818-710-1467Mark.E.Gilbert@gartner.com To request additional copies of this report, send email to editor@cenic.org.  ONEGIGABITORBUST ™ INITIATIVE : ABROADBANDVISIONFORCALIFORNIA Table of Contents A Call To Action........................................................................................................................1A.Executive Summary................................................................................................................2B.Introduction..............................................................................................................................4 The Methodology..................................................................................................................................4Specific Study Objectives......................................................................................................................4 C.The Broadband Opportunity..................................................................................................6 Definitions of Broadband  —  Today's and Next Generation......................................................................6Who Wants High-Speed Data Services?..................................................................................................9How California Compares....................................................................................................................10A Broadband Revolution......................................................................................................................11 D.Potential Economic Opportunity of Ubiquitous Broadband Utilization..........................18 Gartner's View of Potential Broadband Economic Impact......................................................................19A $376 Billion Opportunity for California............................................................................................21 E.The Broadband Obstacles......................................................................................................24 Developing a Clear Vision on How to Drive Ubiquity..........................................................................24Dichotomy of Interests........................................................................................................................25Other Obstacles..................................................................................................................................28Mythological Obstacles........................................................................................................................32 F.Broadband Leadership and Organizational Roles — A Recommendation..........................36 The Search for Next Generation Broadband Leadership........................................................................36Role of Policy Makers/Legislators........................................................................................................37Role of Municipalities..........................................................................................................................38Role of Education................................................................................................................................40Role of Industry..................................................................................................................................40 G.Broadband Regulatory Environment and Recommendations..........................................42 National Telecommunications Policy at a Stalemate..............................................................................42Is There a Role for the CPUC?............................................................................................................43 H.Who Pays — A Recommendation..........................................................................................45I.Next Steps..............................................................................................................................46 California Has a Choice  —  Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way............................................................47  The abbreviated version of this report is titled One Gigabit or Bust Initiative — A Broadband Vision for California Summary Report , and can be downloaded or read onlineat http://www.cenic.org, or a hard copy can be requestedvia e-mail to editor@cenic.org. ONEGIGABITORBUSTINITIATIVE Attachments..............................................................................................................................48 Attachment A  —  CENIC Next Generation Internet Steering Committee................................................48Attachment B  —  Project Interviewees....................................................................................................49Attachment C  —  Consumer Research....................................................................................................51Attachment D  —  Ethernet in the Metropolitan Area Network................................................................53Attachment E  —  Broadband Deployment in South Korea......................................................................55Attachment F  —  Impacts of the FCC's Interconnection Rules................................................................57Attachment G  —  Flexible Regulations Model........................................................................................59Attachment H  —  Best Practices from Other Regions..............................................................................60Attachment I  —  Glossary of Terminology..............................................................................................62 Footnotes....................................................................................................................................69List of Figures Figure 1. Bandwidth........................................................................................................................................7Figure 2. Broadband Penetration and GDP per Capita in Asia/Pacific............................................................11Figure 3. The Theory of  “ Waves ” ..................................................................................................................18Figure 4. Coincidence of  “ GDP per Capita ” and “ Teledensity ” ......................................................................20Figure 5. GSP per Capita (GSPC)................................................................................................................21Figure 6. Distribution of Gain........................................................................................................................23Figure 7. Total Jobs Added............................................................................................................................23Figure 8. Use of the Edge..............................................................................................................................41Figure 9. Regulatory Road Map....................................................................................................................43 List of Tables Table 1. Stakeholder Interviews......................................................................................................................5Table 2. Broadband Capabilities......................................................................................................................7Table 3. Total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Year 2001 (billions of U.S. dollars)....................................10Table 4. Participate In Related Regulatory Initiatives......................................................................................44
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