Dr.aye.Aye.khin.Econometric.models.for.Short.term.Natural.rubber.prices

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ECONOMETRIC AND FORECASTING MODELS This study presents a number of short-term ex-post forecasts of single equation model, Multivariate Autoregressive Moving Average (MARMA) model, simultaneous supply-demand and price system equation model, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and ARCH-type models of natural rubber (NR) SMR20 (Standard Malaysia Rubber of grade 20) prices in the world NR market. The ARCH-type models (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) used inclu
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  AYE AYE KHINEddie Chiew Fook ChongZainal Abidin Mohamed ECONOMETRICFORECASTING MODELS FORSHORT TERM NATURALRUBBER PRICES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD NATURALRUBBER INDUSTRY MODELS SPECIFICATIONS, SIMULATIONAND EVALUATION This study presents a number of short-term ex-post forecasts of singleequation model, Multivariate Autoregressive Moving Average (MARMA)model, simultaneous supply-demand and price system equation model, andAutoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and ARCH-typemodels of natural rubber (NR) SMR20 (Standard Malaysia Rubber of grade20) prices in the world NR market. The ARCH-type models (AutoregressiveConditional Heteroskedasticity) used include the GARCH (1,1) (GeneralizedARCH) model, EGARCH (1,1) (The Exponential GARCH) model, PARCH (1,1)(The Power ARCH) and CGARCH (1,1) (The Component GARCH) model. Themodels were utilized using monthly data from January 1990 to December2008 as estimation period, providing a total of 228 observations and datawas used as an ex-post forecasts. The results revealed that the forecastingperformance of the simultaneous supply-demand and price systemequation model was more efficient than single equation model, MARMA model and ARIMA model, and ARCH-type models for ex-post forecast inestimating the price of SMR20 in the next 6 months or so.  AYE AYE KHIN Aye Aye Khin has successfully obtained her Ph.DDegree in Agribusiness and worked as a PostDoctoral Research Fellow at Universiti Putra Malaysia(UPM) in 2010. In 2011, she has joined as a Lecturer inMultimedia University (MMU), Cyberjaya, Malaysia anduntil to now. 978-3-8465-1546-4 E  C  ON OME T R I   C A NDF  OR E  C A  S T I  N GM ODE L  S A Y E A Y E K HI  N ,E .F  o ok  C h  on g ,Z .M oh  am e d   Information for Authors What happens next? 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Some online bookshops like amazon.com offer the possibility to publish reviews(customer assessments) on books. Is that useful? Is there anything that I can do tocontribute to this? LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing GmbH & Co. KG Dudweiler Landstr. 99 – D-66123 Saarbrücken Telefon: +49 681 3720-310 - Telefax: +49 681 3720-3109e-Mail: info@lap-publishing.com - www.lap-publishing.comRegister court/number: Handelsregister Amtsgericht Saarbrücken HRA 10752 Identification Number (Verkehrsnummer): 12917 -Partner with unlimited liability/Persönlich haftende Gesellschafterin: VDM Management GmbH Register court/number: HandelsregisterAmtsgericht Saarbrücken HRB 18918 - Managing directors/Geschäftsführer: Thorsten Ohm (CEO), Dr. Wolfgang Müller, ChristophSchulligen, Esther von KrosigkPage 1 of 2  Many people who buy books trust the opinion of others. From experience, we can say thatpositive reviews will have a significant effect on the sales figures of your book. 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KG Dudweiler Landstr. 99 – D-66123 Saarbrücken Telefon: +49 681 3720-310 - Telefax: +49 681 3720-3109e-Mail: info@lap-publishing.com - www.lap-publishing.comRegister court/number: Handelsregister Amtsgericht Saarbrücken HRA 10752 Identification Number (Verkehrsnummer): 12917 -Partner with unlimited liability/Persönlich haftende Gesellschafterin: VDM Management GmbH Register court/number: HandelsregisterAmtsgericht Saarbrücken HRB 18918 - Managing directors/Geschäftsführer: Thorsten Ohm (CEO), Dr. Wolfgang Müller, ChristophSchulligen, Esther von KrosigkPage 2 of 2  Ordering your book through the online shop MoreBooks!  We are pleased to offer a new feature to our authors, keeping book orders as simple and efficient as possible.Authors now may order their books from our partner MoreBooks! and enjoy special discounted prices, which are asfollows:  Number of CopiesPercentage Discount Offered 1-520%6-1025%11-1530%16-2435%25 or above40% Our authors are offered discount on the net retail price excluding tax and shipping cost. Step 1:Head over toMorebooks! Step 2:Click on “Register” below the Login menu on the right side.  LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing GmbH & Co. KG Dudweiler Landstr. 99 – D-66123 Saarbrücken Telefon: +49 681 3720-310 - Telefax: +49 681 3720-3109e-Mail: info@lap-publishing.com - www.lap-publishing.comRegister court/number: Handelsregister Amtsgericht Saarbrücken HRA 10752 Identification Number (Verkehrsnummer): 12917 -Partner with unlimited liability/Persönlich haftende Gesellschafterin: VDM Management GmbH Register court/number: HandelsregisterAmtsgericht Saarbrücken HRB 18918 - Managing directors/Geschäftsführer: Thorsten Ohm (CEO), Dr. Wolfgang Müller, ChristophSchulligen, Esther von KrosigkPage 1 of 5
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