Andrew Look Presentation

|
All materials on our website are shared by users. If you have any questions about copyright issues, please report us to resolve them. We are always happy to assist you.
 13 views
of 57

Please download to get full document.

View again

Description
UBS Investment Research Hong Kong Market Strategy Andrew Look UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of UBS in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered
Share
Tags
Transcript
  UBS Investment Research Hong Kong Market Strategy   Andrew Look  UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect theobjectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making theirinvestment decision. Customers of UBS in the United States can receive independent, third-partyresearch on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where suchresearch is available. Customers can access this independent research at   www.ubs.com/independentresearch   or may call +1 877-208-5700 to request a copy of this research.This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Ltd, an affiliate of UBS AG (UBS).  1 Key themes  Sub-prime fallout continues in 2009 —   Low-high-low trend confirmed; investors’   expectations now completelytrashed —   Credit market not taking the bait —   Lower cost of capital just short term “pain killer”; not “surgical removalof tumor”  Key risks for 2009 —   Rising equity risk premiums + deteriorating earning growth momentum —   Share prices are never wrong; analysts may be wrong –   earningdowngrades just beginning  Taking a first glimpse on 2009E index fair value after the latestround of result announcements  Negative real mortgage rates in sight hence supporting assetprices —   Don’t bank on it —   It was a good story two years ago  Take a closer look at developers, landlords, industrials/exporters,financials and Macau plays in search of value propositions  2 The impact of the recent US sub-prime fallout  1.   The sub-prime problem is both a financial and a moral issue2.   Rising volatility means uncertainty and risks3.   Government led rescue package can only reduce but not eliminatethe pain4.   The EU/UK rescue package is far better than the US rescue package5.   Time and patience the only medicine but government can helpalleviate the pain of the adjustment process6.   The only solution: change of spending habits and repair thehousehold balance sheets 10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%     J   a   n  -    0    7    F   e    b  -    0    7    M   a   r  -    0    7    A   p   r  -    0    7    M   a   y  -    0    7    J   u   n  -    0    7    J   u    l  -    0    7    A   u   g  -    0    7    S   e   p  -    0    7    O   c    t  -    0    7    N   o   v  -    0    7    D   e   c  -    0    7    J   a   n  -    0    8 HSI volatility (annualised) Source: UBS estimates  3 Drastic cut in Fed Funds Rate but…. Source: CEIC Pace of rate cut similar to year 2000 when TMT bubble burst, this shows how severethe credit crunch isThe property bubble saved the TMT fallout last time; do we have another bubble insight?
Related Search
We Need Your Support
Thank you for visiting our website and your interest in our free products and services. We are nonprofit website to share and download documents. To the running of this website, we need your help to support us.

Thanks to everyone for your continued support.

No, Thanks