(Finding) NEMoW II

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(Finding) NEMoW II. A 2nd N ational E cosystem Mo deling W orkshop. NEMoW. Follows a successful NEMoW I A national workshop to standardize methodologies and approaches when using ecosystem, bio-physical and multispecies models
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(Finding) NEMoW IIA 2ndNational Ecosystem Modeling WorkshopNEMoW
  • Follows a successful NEMoW I
  • A national workshop to standardize methodologies and approaches when using ecosystem, bio-physical and multispecies models
  • Swapping of best practices, tips, tricks, etc. among practitioners
  • Resulted in TM 87, a report on state of the art of EM within the agency
  • Continues to be responsive to a wide range of calls for EAM/EAF/etc.
  • NEMoWs analogous to NSAW and Nat’l Economists Meetings
  • NEMoW II- A New Theme
  • "bridging the credibility gap"
  • or otherwise dealing with uncertainty in ecosystem models (EM)
  • There is a clear recognition that uncertainty in EM needs to be addressed
  • There is also a clear recognition that doing so may need to be done using different methods given the different models
  • Many of these models are aiming for direction and accuracy, not point-precision – how do we use such outputs?
  • When we say ecosystem models (EM), we mean:
  • Minimal realistic models (MRMs)
  • Includes ESAMs, MS models
  • Bulk biomass models
  • Includes aggregated versions of SS/MS & Food web models
  • Full system models
  • “Soup to nuts”, full system and biophysical approaches
  • Proposed Terms of Reference
  • how to handle uncertainties in ecosystem models;
  • how to utilize strategic (as opposed to tactical) model output and advice;
  • development of ecosystem model review venues and protocols;
  • and a re-examination of the ecosystem modeling external review criteria developed in NEMoW I.
  • Proposed Terms of Reference
  • how to handle uncertainties in ecosystem models
  • What are the sources of uncertainty?
  • How can they be identified?
  • How can they, or can they, be mitigated?
  • What are the one to two top unknowns in each Center’s EM activities?
  • How uncertain are some of the EM results compared to SS results?
  • Proposed Terms of Reference
  • how to utilize strategic (as opposed to tactical) model output and advice
  • What models can produce precise BRPs and related outputs that are specific, precise and point estimates (tactical advice)?
  • What is the (expected and reasonable) variability about those estimates from different models classes?
  • What models can not produce precise BRPs, but rather accurate, directional (strategic) outputs?
  • What is the (expected and reasonable) variability about those estimates?
  • Proposed Terms of Reference
  • development of ecosystem model review venues and protocols
  • What is the place for strategic advice?
  • What are case studies/examples where this would have helped?
  • Proposed Terms of Reference
  • a re-examination of the ecosystem modeling external review criteria developed in NEMoW I
  • What are the key “checklists” that external reviewers need for reviewing EMs?
  • Are there appropriate standardized questions and model applications for the broad range of model classes?
  • How can we make these review criteria more widely available to reviewers?
  • How do these review criteria compare to other model (e.g. assessment) review contexts?
  • NEMoW II Products
  • Workshop Report
  • Evaluation of How to Handle EM Model Uncertainty, with comments on best practices
  • Establishment of guidelines for EM model review process
  • Establishment of how/when to use differing levels of advice
  • Workshop Format
  • 3 days: review, Center and topic specific each day
  • Daily Format
  • AM: presentations
  • PM: breakout groups
  • For NMFS Ecosystem modelers, by NMFS Ecosystem modelers
  • Limited # of non-NMFS experts and observers
  • Emphasis is on active participation and discussion, particularly in breakout groups
  • Breakout Group Chairs
  • Group 1 Michael Schirripa Sarah Gaichas
  • Group 2 Kerim Aydin Chris Harvey
  • Group 3 Don Kobayashi Bill Overholtz
  • Group 4 Phil Levin John Field
  • Each person assigned to a group based on geography, expertise, etc.
  • Each group will meet 5 different times during workshop, addressing different TOR
  • Captured discussions, revisited in plenary, will form core of workshop report
  • Thanks
  • Local Hosts
  • Peyton Robertson and NCBO/CBF/CRC
  • External Experts
  • Randall Peterman
  • Nick Bond
  • Andre Punt
  • Tom Miller
  • Other NOAA Observers
  • Mark Vincent NOS
  • Hendrik Tolman NWS
  • Charlie Stock OAR
  • NMFS Science Board
  • Thanks
  • Nat’l Steering Cmte
  • Howard Townsend NCBO
  • Kerim Aydin AFSC
  • (Sarah Gaichas)
  • Kenric Osgood S&T
  • Michael Schirripa SEFSC
  • Don Kobayashi PIFSC
  • Phil Levin NWFSC
  • (Isaac Kaplan, Chris Harvey)
  • George Watters SWFSC
  • (John Field)
  • Questions?
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