NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL COMMITTEE Malaquias Pena & Brian Mills NOAA/NWS/NCEP & Environment Canada

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NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL COMMITTEE Malaquias Pena & Brian Mills NOAA/NWS/NCEP & Environment Canada. OUTLINE. TPARC TIGGE / NAEFS / GIFS THORPEX-IPY, YOTC SERA – Brian NARC meetings, other activities / plan US THORPEX. TPARC. Summer T-PARC ~20 projects funded TC structure – ONR ET – NSF
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NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL COMMITTEEMalaquias Pena & Brian MillsNOAA/NWS/NCEP & Environment CanadaOUTLINE
  • TPARC
  • TIGGE / NAEFS / GIFS
  • THORPEX-IPY, YOTC
  • SERA – Brian
  • NARC meetings, other activities / plan
  • US THORPEX
  • TPARC
  • Summer T-PARC
  • ~20 projects funded
  • TC structure – ONR
  • ET – NSF
  • Winter TPARC
  • Impact of targeted observations on high impact weather
  • NOAA, Env. Canada, Russia, Japan
  • Link with Winter Olympics
  • Data archived by NASA
  • IPY, YOTC, SERA
  • THORPEX – IPY
  • TAWEPI, STAR, CONCORDIASI
  • YOTC – Year of Tropical Convection
  • International Program Office
  • Meetings, web pages, etc
  • Sponsored by US THORPEX Executive Committee
  • Funded by NSF, NASA, NOAA
  • Housed at NCAR
  • High resolution NWP data provided by NASA & NCEP
  • SERA
  • Old recommendations still seem to be valid
  • THORPEX Stakeholder Panel never formed
  • OTHER NARC ACTIVITIES
  • Last NARC meeting
  • Cuernavaca, Mexico, May 2010
  • Back-to-back with 5th NAEFS Workshop
  • Huge turnout & success (more than 100 participants from region)
  • Mexican THORPEX Committee formed
  • Draft Mexican Science Plan
  • Regional model intercomparison – research to operation
  • Heavy precipitation forecast in S Mexico & Central America
  • Step towards regional NWP in Mexico and Central America?
  • Seven Mexican centers to run WRF
  • Groups in the U.S. and Canada offered participation
  • Link with TIGGE-LAM
  • Next NARC meeting
  • Monterey, USA, Spring 2012 – joint with NAEFS Workshop
  • OTHER NARC ACTIVITIES
  • Last NARC meeting
  • Cuernavaca, Mexico, May 2010 - with 5th NAEFS Workshop
  • Huge turnout & success (more than 100 participants from region)
  • Mexican THORPEX Committee formed
  • Draft Mexican Science Plan
  • Regional model intercomparison – research to operation
  • Heavy precipitation forecast in S Mexico & Central America
  • Step towards regional NWP in Mexico and Central America?
  • Seven Mexican centers to run WRF
  • Groups in the U.S. and Canada offered participation
  • Link with TIGGE-LAM
  • SWFDP for Mexico & Central America?
  • Planning stage
  • National Meteorological Service of Mexico may support it
  • Next NARC meeting
  • Monterey, USA, Spring 2012 – joint with NAEFS Workshop
  • US THORPEX EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
  • Collaboration among four agencies
  • NASA, NOAA, NSF, US Navy
  • Major investments since 2004
  • ~20+ M funding for research
  • Support IPO, US THORPEX PO, Intl YOTC PO
  • Significant in-kind contributions to field campaigns etc
  • Challenges in FY2012 & beyond
  • NASA Weather Applications Program suspended
  • THORPEX not in NOAA budget
  • Contributed more to THORPEX Trust Fund this year (185k)
  • No promise for coming years
  • US THORPEX ACTIVITIES
  • US Science Plan complete and approved
  • Available on web, 30 p.
  • Aligned with International Sci Plan
  • Overlap between process, forecast, and social studies
  • US THORPEX Science Steering Committee
  • Being reconstituted, respected scientists (by Nov 2011)
  • Edmund Chang & Malaquias Pena co-chairs
  • US Implementation Plan being formulated
  • Match academic interests (USTSSC) with funding opportunities (USTEC)
  • POTENTIAL US THORPEX FOCUS AREAS
  • Moist processes & forecasting
  • Leading to precipitation, wind, TC, etc events with high socio-economic impact
  • YOTC, Dynamo, Natl Unified Operational Prediction Capability, NAEFS, GIFS
  • Extend predictability to intraseasonal timescales
  • Global to regional connections
  • What products appropriate? - Socio-economic aspect of problem
  • Earth System Prediction Capability, WCRP
  • Ensemble forecasting, probabilistic products
  • Link with data assimilation; Representation of model errors
  • NUOPC, NAEFS, GIFS, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), etc
  • Observing & DA system optimization
  • OSSEs, adaptive use of satellite observations
  • Coordinated multi-agency / intl major field campaign in ~2015?
  • NEXT USTEC MEETING
  • At AMS Annual Meeting in January 2012
  • Please join us if you are there and interested
  • BACKGROUNDUS THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLANPotential focus areas
  • Moist processes
  • Leading to precipitation, wind, TC, etc eventsropical Cyclones, etc) w high socio-economic impact
  • Links with NUOPC, GIFS
  • Extend predictability to intraseasonal timescales
  • Global to regional connections
  • What products are appropriate for intraseasonal scales? - Socio-economic aspect of problem
  • Link with ESPC, WCRP
  • Ensemble forecasting research (for both items above)
  • Link with data assimilation; Representation of model errors
  • Links with National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC), North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), GIFS, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), etc
  • Potential areas of work:
  • Ensemble development, probabilistic products - NUOPC, GIFS, HFIP, ESPC
  • Tropical processes and forecasting - YOTC, Dynamo, NARC's outreach to Central America/Caribbean/Mexico
  • Observing & DA system optimization – Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), adaptive use of satellite obs, coordinated multi-agency / intl major field campaign in ~2015
  • Work proposal for 2012
  • Outreach to Mexico and Central America
  • Organizing a SWFDP experiment for the region
  • Planning Stage
  • Mexican NWS might be willing to support this activity
  • How THORPEX (TIGGE, NAEFS) can contribute?
  • NARC meeting: May-June 2012.
  • MEXICO & CENTRAL AMERICA SWFDP?
  • Last NARC meeting
  • Cuernavaca, Mexico, May 2010
  • Back-to-back with 5th NAEFS Workshop
  • Huge turnout & success (more than 100 participants from region)
  • Mexican THORPEX Committee formed
  • Draft Mexican Science Plan
  • Regional model intercomparison – research to operation
  • Heavy precipitation forecast in S Mexico & Central America
  • Step towards regional NWP in Mexico and Central America?
  • Seven Mexican centers to run WRF
  • Groups in the U.S. and Canada offered participation
  • Link with TIGGE-LAM
  • Next NARC meeting
  • Monterey, USA, Spring 2012 – joint with NAEFS Workshop
  • Related Search
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