Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data

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Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data T. Egorova * , E. Rozanov *,** , N. Hochmuth *** , A.I. Shapiro * , A.V. Shapiro *,** , and W. Schmutz * *PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland
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Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data T. Egorova*, E. Rozanov*,**, N. Hochmuth***, A.I. Shapiro*, A.V. Shapiro*,**, and W. Schmutz**PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland** ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland*** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, SwitzerlandSOTERIA, 30 May–01 June 2011Outline
  • Project goals and components
  • Model description and validation
  • Demonstration of LyraViewer: visualization
  • Goals of the project
  • Find out how well we understand the solar irradiance influence on the middle atmosphere
  • Learn how to manage near-real-time operation and visualization
  • Nowcast of chemical composition in the middle atmosphereWP5 D5.3:Reconstructed SSI datafor 120-680 nm SOTERIA: Th. Dudok de Witand L. E. A. VieraWP5 D5.4: CICM SOCOLi with SSI data from D5.3 WP5 D5.4: Nowcastingresults available online every 6 hoursNowcast of anomalies of neutraland charged specieswith free running CICM SOCOLiOutput validation to improve the model and experimental set-upWP6 D6.5: Online publishing of themiddle atmospherechemical compositionMEZONMA-ECHAM4Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOLiEgorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010
  • t = 15 min for dynamics
  • t = 2 h for radiation
  • horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°)
  • vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa
  • CTM:Model for Evaluation of oZONe trendsRozanov et al. 1999, 2001Egorova et al. 2001, 2003GCM:Middle Atmosphere version of the European Center/Hamburg Model 4Manzini and McFarlane, 1998
  • t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry
  • 41 chemical species
  • Electrons, 17 negative ions,
  • 31 positive ions
  • Reactions: 118 gas-phase, 33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic
  • GCM-CTM coupling by O3 , H2O, CH4, N2O, CFCs
  • Model validation:
  • HEPPA comparison
  • (High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere)
  • Case-study SPE October-November 2003
  • O3 : MIPAS observations
  • 2. Case-study June-August 2004
  • OH : MLS observations
  • Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman- line from the 2-month mean. Compiled by J. LeanElectron density in the tropicsSolar UVSPEkmGCRTropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm-3) IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS modelOzone changes due to Haloween storm SPEFunke et al.,2011SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004 Case study with CICM SOCOLi: Increase SSI by ~5%The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using any of availble data setsComparison with observations:Hydroxyl (tropical mean)75 kmJune, July and August 2004CCM SOCOLi output4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, timeMixing ratio of the chosen neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions densityfor the 6 hour period after the last reconstructed SSI dataCharged components:O+, O2+, O4+, N+, NO+, N2+, H2O2+, H3O+,O2+∙N2, O2+∙H2O, H3O+∙OH, NO+∙H2O, NO+∙(H2O)2, NO+∙(H2O)3, NO+∙CO2, NO+∙N2, NO+∙H2O∙CO2, NO+∙H2O∙N2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2, H+∙(H2O)3, H+∙(H2O)4, H+∙(H2O)5, H+∙(H2O)6, H+∙(H2O)7, H3O+∙CO2, H3O+∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, H+∙(H2O)2∙N2e¯,O¯, O2¯, O3¯, O4¯, OH¯, CO3¯, CO4¯, NO2¯, NO3¯, HCO3¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH3¯,O2¯∙H2O, NO3¯∙H2O, CO3¯∙H2ONeutral components:O3 , O* , O , O2*, NO, HO2, ClO, NO2 , OH, NO3, N2O5, HNO3,HONO3, ClONO2, Cl, N, N*, H2O2, H, HOCl, Cl2, Cl2O2, HCl , Br, CH2O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO3, BrCl, CH3, CH3O2, CH3O, HCO, CH3O2H, H2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N2O, CH4, CO, H2, CBrF3Output parameters:Neutral: O3, NO, NO2, OH, H2O Charged: e-, e*, total p+ Thermo-dyn.: T, den, GPHHomepage:http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/Snap-shot of visualization package Snap-shot of visualization package Conclusions and outlook
  • Model has been developed and validated, it reasonably reproduces the resposnse of the middle atmosphere to the variability of SSI and particles
  • Visualization software has been developed
  • Online publishing of chemical composition of the middle atmosphere from nowcasting CCM with input from reconstrustions of SSI (D6.5)
  • Online operational nowcast of the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere (D5.4)
  • Some things left to polish: homepage, visualization package
  • PMOD/WRC, Davos
  • End of the presentation…
  • Thank you!!!
  • What has been done?
  • Development CCM with ion chemistry: CICM SOCOLi
  • Model validation has been performed (e.g. HEPPA)
  • Visualization software has been developed
  • CICM SOCOLi working with reconstructed SSI from WP5 D5.3
  • On-line publishing of the model data (D5.3)
  • On-line nowcasting of the middle atmosphere parameters
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