Disruptive Demographics: Implications For K-12 Education in Michigan

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August 2012. Disruptive Demographics: Implications For K-12 Education in Michigan. James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. OVERVIEW. • Demographic Trends.
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August 2012Disruptive Demographics: Implications For K-12 Education in MichiganJames H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel HillOVERVIEW• Demographic Trends• Challenges & Opportunities• DiscussionwhatCENSUS 2010will REVEALAugust 20126 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS•The South Rises – Again•The Browning of America•Marrying Out is “In”•The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit•The End of Men?•Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well…and Grandpa’s Too!The SouthContinues To Rise...Again!SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008= Net Import= Net ExportGROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010STATE SHARE OF MIDWEST’SNET GROWTH, 2000-2010Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s ShareThe Midwest2,534,225100.0%Illinois411,33916.2%Indiana403,31715.9%Missouri384,44615.2%Wisconsin323,31110.4%Michigan-54,804-2.2%Gross and Net Migration, Michigan, 2004-2010YearArrivingDepartingNetMigrantsMigrantsMigration2009-201050,94779,699- 28,7522008-200958,83289,694-30,8622007-200860,40897,778-37,3702006-200752,40889,342-36,9342005-200654,53183,489-28,9582004-200554,98077,518-22,538Total332,106517,520-185,414Major Redistributors of Populationto Michigan, 2009-2010State OriginNumber ofState OriginNumber ofArriving MigrantsArriving MigrantsFlorida5,091Arizona1,726Ohio4,278Georgia1,682Illinois3,930North Carolina1,678Indiana3,283Tennessee1,665California3,243Virginia1,331Texas2,760Colorado1,101Wisconsin1,827Foreign1,194New York1,801Major Destinations of Out Migrants From Michigan, 2009-2010State Destination DepartingState DestinationDepartingMigrantsMigrantsFlorida8,512Arizona2,946Ohio6,137Georgia2,813Illinois5,514North Carolina2,453Indiana4,814Tennessee2,343California4,722Virginia2,225Texas3,997Colorado2,119Wisconsin3,236Foreign2,297New York3,067Adjusted Gross Incomes of Arriving andDeparting Migrants, Michigan, 2004-2010YearArriving AGIDeparting AGIDifference2009-2010$41,136$44,721-$3,5852008-2009$41,256$47,068-$5,8122007-2008$42,735$50,870-$8,1352006-2007$45,872$49,932-$4,0602005-2006$46,129$46,924-$7952004-2005$45,249$46,820-$1,571Total$43,730$47,723-$3,993THE “BROWNING”OF AMERICATHE NUMBERSLegal Immigrants:
  • 1920-1961: 206,000 annually
  • 1961-1992: 561,000 annually
  • 1993-1998: 800,654 annually
  • 1999-2004: 879,400 annually
  • 2005-2008: 1,137,000 annually
  • Refugees, Parolees, Asylees
  • 1961-1993: 2.1 million (65,000 annually)
  • 1994-1998: 428,361 (85,672 annually)
  • 1999-2004: 487,386 (81,231 annually)
  • 2005-2008: 203,642 (75,661 annually)
  • Illegal Immigrants:
  • 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades
  • Three million granted amnesty in 1986
  • 2.7 million illegal immigrants remained in U.S. after 1986 reforms
  • October 1996: INS estimated that there were 5 million illegal immigrants in the U.S.
  • August 2005: Illegal population range from 7 to 15 million.
  • NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, 1981-2008IMMIGRATION POPULATION, 1900-2007Source: Center for Immigration Studies; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population SurveyU.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2009SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2009MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITYSource: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITYSource: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.MICHIGAN POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females inMichigan, 2006-2010Fertility/1000Demographic GroupMedian Agewomen*All Females39.353White, Not Hispanic42.049Black34.462American Indian & Alaskan Native34.155Asian31.961Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander26.6 81Some other race25.092Two or more races17.557Hispanic24.187Native Born39.152Foreign Born41.477Source: www.census.gov*Women 15 to 50 with births in past12 months.Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Economic Impact of Hispanics in North CarolinaSUMMARY OF HISPANIC ECONOMIC IMPACT, NC, 2006Marrying Outis “In”INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/EthnicityEDUCATION & INTERMARRIAGE% of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008INTERMARRIAGE TYPESNewly Married Couples in 2008INTERMARRIAGE RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY% of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008THE SILVER TSUNAMIU.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015)THE GREYING OF AMERICAU.S. Census ProjectionsABSOLUTE AND PERCENT CHANGE IN U.S. POPULATION BY AGEOLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCEAbsolute and Percent PopulationChange by Age, 2000-2010AgeUnited StatesMichiganAll Ages27,323,632-54,804(9.7%)(-0.6%)<255,416,292-209,947(5.4%)(-6.0%)25-44-2,905,697-518,421(-3.4%)(-17.5%)45-6419,536,809531,052(31.5%)(23.8%)65+5,276,231142,512(15.1%)(11.7%)The End of Men?FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATIONTHE PLIGHT OF MEN
  • Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to 1969.
  • Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration.
  • The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%).
  • Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation.
  • After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.
  • COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) RECESSION COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA’S WELL And Grandpa’s Too!CHILDREN LIVING IN NON-GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT HOUSEHOLDS, 2001-2010CHILDREN LIVING IN NON-GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS BY PRESENCE OF PARENTS, 2010 Challenges...and OpportunitiesREADING ACHIEVEMENT FOR 9 YEAR OLD AFRICAN AMERICAN MALES, 1975-2009READING ACHIEVEMENT FOR 13 YEAR OLD AFRICAN AMERICAN MALES, 1975-2009READING ACHIEVEMENT FOR 17 YEAR OLD AFRICAN AMERICAN MALES, 1975-2009MATH ACHIEVEMENT FOR 9 YEAR OLD AFRICAN AMERICAN MALES, 1987-2008MATH ACHIEVEMENT FOR 13 YEAR OLD AFRICAN AMERICAN MALES, 1987-2008MATH ACHIEVEMENT FOR 17 YEAR OLD AFRICAN AMERICAN MALES, 1987-2008HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES BY RACE & GENDER, 2009 AND EARLIER Education is Necessary...but insufficientAVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATIONAVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATIONTHE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT
  • Analytical Reasoning
  • Entrepreneurial Acumen
  • Contextual Intelligence
  • Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity
  • Agility and Flexibility
  • THE ENDThe North Carolina Minority Male Bridge to Success ProjectAFRICAN-AMERICAN MALE STRATEGIC INTERVENTIONSGLOBAL SCHOLARS ACADEMY Global Scholars Academy Lab SchoolYouth Psychological ServicesUnderprivilegedYouthFamily ManagementTechnological Innovationsin LearningTutorsRemediation in the BasicsMentorsNC Standard Course of StudyHealth and WellnessEntrepreneurship & Financial LiteracyGlobalAwarenessCharacter EducationAfter-school/Extended DayCultural EnrichmentFine ArtsFitnessSoft SkillsNetworkingPreparatory SchoolSUCCESSFUL PATHWAYS TO OPTIMAL DEVELOPMENTLow Quality CaregiversCommunityAffectionMediating InstitutionsViolence/Lack of SafetySchoolProtectionMales of ColorHarsh/Inconsistent/Ineffective DisciplineNeighborhoodSocial, Cultural & Intellectual Capital NetworksCorrectionFragile Self IdentityFamilyConcentration EffectsTarget GroupStressorsBridgesCoping MechanismsOutcomesRECRUITMENT STRATEGY FOR GSA BRIDGE TO SUCCESS PROGRAM FOR BLACK BOYS 0-8GSA/Primary Colors Early Childhood Learning CenterGSA K-8 Charter SchoolGSA/BSP for Black Boys 0-8TargetPopulationPre-KInterventionsK-8InterventionsOutcomesInputs
  • Boys of color ages 0-8 in attendance at GSA
  • Families of boys of color at GSA
  • Teaching staff, administrators, and volunteers at GSA
  • Advisory panel of academic scholars and practitioners
  • Technologically enhanced learning partnerships (SAS, IBM, Carnegie Mellon, etc)
  • Enduring community & university partnerships to inform design, implementation and evaluation
  • Resources and funding partners for boys' higher Education
  • Outcomes
  • Healthy males with strong academic, social, and character identities
  • Families that are more emotionally-secure, knowledgeable, and engaged with their boys, and have stronger social networks
  • Formalization of corporate, community and university partnerships
  • Evaluation of outcomes and implementation
  • Teachers better able to teach boys of color using high boy-interest activities and materials
  • Each family has a college savings plan for their boys
  • Outputs
  • Increase parents and caregivers’ support for their boys’ pro-social growth and development
  • Strengthen boys oral language, pre-academic and social skills, and racial identity
  • Concretize families ability to help finance their boys’ college matriculation
  • Strengthen teachers’ and administrators ability to engage, motivate, teach, and develop character in young boys of color.
  • Increase the number of activities, lessons, and materials of high interest to boys
  • Use evaluation data to improve subsequent programming and assess program impact
  • Activities to Improve Coping Mechanisms
  • Conduct parent focus groups, support groups, and home-visits and disseminate information specific supporting boys of color pro-social growth and development
  • Engage boys in high-interest oral language, pre-academic and social skills activities (in-school and afterschool) that support their development of healthy racial identities
  • Develop an incentive-based savings account for each boy
  • Provide professional development to educators through expert practitioners.
  • Assess curriculum and materials to ensure that is interests and challenges boys to excel
  • Leveraging corporate, community and university partnerships to inform design, implementation, and longitudinal evaluation
  • Leverage resources to secure funding for GSA
  • Problems
  • Boys of color are more likely to experience early and persistent trauma and violence
  • Boys of color are less likely to have nurturing caregivers/parents and qualified educators
  • Boys of color are less likely to be prepared for school and more likely to receive inadequate/ inappropriate educational services
  • Impact
  • Optimal Development
  • Healthy and prepared to succeed in school
  • Positive feelings about school, college matriculation, and future success
  • Strong and adaptive self-efficacy and self-regulation
  • Above average performance on cognitive. behavioral, and emotional assessments
  • LOGIC MODEL FOR YOUNG BOYS OF COLOR EARLY INTERVENTION (0 TO 8 YEARS OLD)Strategies-Offer courses and curricula that prepare students for college-level work and ensure students understand what constitutes a college-ready curriculum-Utilize measures throughout high school to assess baseline college “preparedness” and assist them on overcoming deficiencies as identified-Surround students with adults and peers who build and support college going and career aspirations Provide comprehensive life/skills training to increase cultural elasticity, enhance understanding of interests and career aptitudes, character development & personal branding-Provide professional development to educators through expert practitioners.Increase household financial capability and opportunities to practice money management-Leveraging partnerships to inform design, implementation and evaluation
  • Inputs
  • - Males of color in
  • Grades 9-12
  • - Families/guardians
  • - Teaching staff, administrators, guidance counselors mentors, coaches
  • - Advisory panel of academic scholars and practitioners to inform training curricula and professional development activities
  • - Leverage technologically enhanced learning partnerships (SAS, IBM, Carnegie Mellon, etc)
  • - Resources and funding partners for boys' higher Education
  • Outputs
  • Concretize families ability to help finance their boys’ college matriculation
  • Strengthen teachers’ and administrators ability to engage, motivate, teach, and develop character in young boys of color.
  • Use evaluation data to improve subsequent programming and assess program impact
  • Formalization of corporate, community and university partnerships
  • Concrete evaluation design and plan for outcomes and implementation
  • Teachers better able to teach boys of color
  • Outcomes
  • Students possess the prerequisite academic skills necessary to meet college rigor standards
  • Students possess strong cognitive skills and an ability to think analytically
  • Students strong self management skills, are organized and manage time wisely
  • Students possess a dense social network of peers and mentors
  • Student possess goal-oriented strategies for managing their personal finances.
  • Problems- Minority males are less likely to possess positive social networks (from either their peers or lack of male presence in household)- Minority males are more likely to experience or witness trauma and violence-Minority males are more likely to experience disproportionate school disciplinary sanctions- Minority males are behind their peers academically and more prone to disconnecting from school altogether LOGIC MODEL FOR MINORITY MALE COLLEGE PREPARATORY ACADEMY GRADES 9-12THStrategies
  • First-year Transition
  • Academic Advising
  • Assessment/Screening
  • Career Planning/Placement
  • Learning Assistance
  • Mentoring
  • Faculty Development
  • Financial Aid Navigation
  • Co-Curricular Services
  • Mental Health/Coping Support
  • Inputs
  • Program staff
  • Faculty
  • Student Affairs
  • Housing/Resident Life
  • Academic Affairs Staff
  • Student Organizations
  • Campus Health Services
  • Family Support
  • Community Partners
  • Student Peers
  • Outcomes
  • Greater retention rates
  • Higher graduation rates
  • More career ready graduates
  • Less debt and more financially stable
  • Entrepreneurial acumen
  • Possess a global perspective
  • Outputs
  • Less first-year transition
  • Timely major selection
  • Appropriate major selection
  • Efficient course selection
  • Realistic professional goals
  • Higher student GPAs
  • Stronger professional networks
  • Less attrition in “gateway courses”
  • Less finance driven attrition
  • Stronger social support
  • Greater resiliency
  • Early warning
  • Problems
  • College unreadiness
  • Institutional Culture Shock
  • Poor Coping Skills
  • Inadequate academic and social supports
  • Loan use and abuse
  • Parental/Family obligations
  • Career path insecurity
  • LOGIC MODEL FOR MINORITY MALE COLLEGE RETENTION
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